As we move through 2026, the data from the past year confirms a fundamental shift in the carbon market. The market has moved beyond the era of speculative volume and entered the era of Climate Pragmatism.

"2025 was defined by climate pragmatism. Solutions that work, cost less, and make sense beyond their climate benefits attracted most of the capital and attention - primarily in the form of equity,” CEEZER CEO Magnus Drewelies told Berlin Global Dialogue in a recent interview. “2026 will continue to be a year where climate ambition is not an externality but a core component of economic and social strategy.”

For enterprise buyers, the 2025 landscape was defined by three distinct pillars: a significant shift from quantity to quality, a massive pivot toward durable removals, and a newfound confidence in corporate climate communication.

Data period: 2025 (compared to 2024)
Source: Insights based on transactions via the CEEZER platform and CEEZER supply data.

The year of quality over quantity

The most striking indicator of market health isn't volume, it’s value. While the total volume of retired credits grew by a modest 3.3% (reaching 214Mt), the total market value surged by over 30% to $1.35 billion.

This continued decoupling of volume and value sends a clear signal: the ‘quality premium’ is real and is here to stay. Enterprise buyers are consistently prioritizing high-integrity credits that withstand rigorous scrutiny. In transactions facilitated by CEEZER, this was reflected in a 116% increase in the average spend per ton, as portfolios shifted toward high-impact, high-permanence projects.

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Global CDR sales surge by almost 4x

2025 was undeniably the year of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Global CDR sales reached a record $7.3 billion, a staggering 3.7x increase over the previous year. 

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Perhaps more importantly, the forward CDR market is now 5.6x larger than the value of all current credit retirements ($1.3B).

Experienced buyers are securing future supply today to hedge against expected supply and price volatility in net-zero years around 2030 and later. On CEEZER’s platform, this manifested in spend per ton increasing 16% in the removal category thanks to the dominance of pricier ‘Oxford Category 5’ durable removals, such as mineralization and biochar, which now account for more than 50% of all transactions.

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Resilience in pricing

Despite economic headwinds, 2025 carbon pricing showed remarkable resilience. The average price for removal credits rose 8% to $27.6/ton, while the average price for CCP-aligned avoidance credits climbed 17% to $4.2/ton, confirming their role as a high-quality bridge for immediate action. This stability is now attracting sophisticated capital as market demand clarifies.

Financially viable carbon removal technologies with proven demand are unlocking a new wave of non-dilutive funding as financial institutions develop structured debt products specifically for the climate transition. Backed by steady institutional commitment and clearer market signals, these instruments are likely to further provide the liquidity needed to scale CDR and energy assets while delivering attractive returns for investors.

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The decline of greenhushing

One of the most encouraging shifts for the industry is the continued decline of ‘greenhushing.’ The CEEZER Greenhushing Index fell by 11 percentage points to 19% in 2025.

The data suggests this shift is rooted in climate pragmatism: While capital increasingly flows into high-quality solutions that have a proven impact and offer measurable co-benefits, carbon disclosure is shifting from a discretionary effort into standard business practice. In this landscape, transparency is no longer a risk to be managed, but a natural byproduct of a data-driven climate strategy that delivers measurable, long-term value.

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Key takeaways for 2026 buyers:

Enterprise buyers’ carbon credit strategies for 2026 must adapt for a high-value, supply-constrained future. Here’s how that happens:

• Secure the right supply ahead of time: The CDR forward market is accelerating; early movers have the advantage in terms of securing preferred prices and supply.
• Prioritize permanence: Durable removals are becoming the market standard for long-term claims and offer the broadest applicability for voluntary and mandatory quality frameworks.‍
• Communicate your net-zero strategy confidently: With more and more buyers investing in data-backed, sophisticated portfolios, ‘greenhushing’ is no longer required for buyers. Instead, transparent, data-driven reporting is becoming the best defense against scrutiny.

If you’d like to discuss this data, your climate strategy, or how to build a diversified, high-quality portfolio with CEEZER, contact us today.